Risk-assessment baseline packet. County area 04021. Release 2026-10, data as of 2026-09-28.
What the packet contains
Sections in FEMA checklist order. Each heading names the review item its tables support; whether the item is satisfied is decided by the plan and its reviewers. Full tables are in the downloads above.
Supports B1-a Hazards
14 of the 18 National Risk Index hazards apply here; omission evidence is shown only where NRI rates a hazard "Not Applicable", no federal declaration names it and Storm Events has no record of it since 1996.
Highest expected annual loss (NRI, modeled): Inland Flooding, Heat Wave and Wildfire.
Also check locally (not covered by NRI): dam failure (incl. upstream dams), levee failure, flash flood as its own subtype, ice jams, debris flows, erosion (riverine and coastal), land subsidence and sinkholes and expansive soils.
Check your state hazard mitigation plan's hazard list for this county; explain any hazard you drop.
Supports B1-b Location
- Avalanche, Coastal Flooding, Earthquake, Hurricane, Landslide, Tornado, Tsunami, Volcanic Activity and Wildfire: Census tract rating counts from the National Risk Index tract table (see B1-f). Tract maps and place names are not in this packet.
- Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Ice Storm, Lightning, Strong Wind and Winter Weather: Affects the whole planning area; national data do not distinguish locations within the county. Confirm locally.
- Inland Flooding: The FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) is the required location source for flooding. See the FEMA Flood Map Service Center (https://msc.fema.gov) for this county.
Supports B1-c Extent
Storm Events records for 13 of 20 hazard groups, with the scale, observed range and worst recorded event for each; the others say local data required.
- Hail: 2 in hail, 2025-10-13
- Thunderstorm Wind: 87 kt (100 mph), measurement type not recorded, Thunderstorm Wind, 1981-05-01
- Tornado: F1 tornado, 1972-06-21, 1 mi path length (records before 1996 may include the whole path; rating and listing come from the county where the tornado began), 1,000 yd wide, $2,500,000 property; crops not recorded (1972 dollars), 8 direct injuries
Supports B1-d Previous occurrences
23 federal declaration rows for this area (20 counted incidents), each with type, dates and county Public Assistance dollars.
New since the last plan (approved 2022-09-12): FM-5585-AZ, FM-5505-AZ and FM-5493-AZ.
Hazards with no recorded events are stated as such (6 of 18).
Storm Events history: 1,001 records (notable ones in the PDF, all of them in the Excel file).
Supports B1-e Probability
FEMA annualized frequency (modeled) for each hazard, with a descriptor from a scale defined in the packet.
- Highly likely: Inland Flooding, Landslide, Lightning and Strong Wind
- Likely: Cold Wave, Drought, Hail, Heat Wave, Tornado, Wildfire and Winter Weather
- Possible: Avalanche and Hurricane
Historical frequency by intensity band (tornado, hail, wind): 9 bands from Storm Events.
Supports B1-f Variation across the planning area
Range of census tract risk scores within the area for 18 hazards (95 tracts; rated tracts only).
12 member jurisdictions: plan clock, repeat-flood count, Public Assistance dollars and event records naming the place (starter, confirm locally).
Supports B2-a, B2-b Assets and impacts
Local data required
County-level starter. The plan must describe impacts for each participant and its own assets.
Storm Events damage since 2022-09-12: $621,000 in county-coded records (91 records); $2,529,000 reported for the zone (101 zone records). Data through 2026-06-30; nominal dollars.
Checklist of what to gather locally: Critical facilities and lifelines per hazard; A problem statement per participant per hazard; Changes in development in hazard-prone areas since the last approval, or a statement of none (E1-a); Future assets.
Supports B2-a Context
Population 424,095; building value $69,061,280,418 and agriculture value $1,109,821,775 (total, not at risk).
National Risk Index rating Relatively Moderate; social vulnerability Relatively Moderate; community resilience Very Low.
Supports B2-c Repetitive loss
Repetitive-loss properties, FMA definition (44 CFR 77.2): 1 repetitive loss, 0 severe repetitive loss. NFIP insurance definition: 6 and 0.
Mitigated 0; insured 3; NFIP data as of 2026-08-02. Counts by occupancy and for each member community are in the packet.